Why China’s Aluminum Industry May Have Reached Peak CO2
Summary
China's aluminum manufacturing CO2 emissions are projected to peak in 2024, driven by gradual structural changes in production methods rather than abrupt policy shifts. This evolution highlights the industry's long-term impact on emissions. The authors explore this significant development.
Key Insights
What does 'peak CO2' mean for China's aluminum industry?
Peak CO2 refers to the point at which carbon dioxide emissions from the aluminum sector reach their maximum level before beginning a sustained decline, projected to occur in 2024 due to rising renewable energy use, plateauing primary output, and increased secondary aluminum production.
Why are CO2 emissions from China's aluminum production so high compared to the global average?
China's primary aluminum production emits about 12.7-14.8 tonnes of CO2 per tonne of aluminum, higher than the global average of 10.3 tonnes, primarily because over 70% of its energy comes from coal-fired electricity rather than cleaner sources.